Hybrid car sales statistics

Economic downturn spells hard times for hybrids

How many hybrids are there on US roads? Hybrid car sales statistics are not readily available from government sources, but a rough estimate, based on sales of hybrids in the US from January 2004 to December 2009, shows that about 1.5 million hybrid cars and SUVs were sold in the US.

According to the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics, there were 139 million passengar vehicles in use in 2006. That means that even if we assume that 95% of the hybrid cars sold in the last five years are still on the road, still barely1% of all passenger vehicles in the US are gas-electric hybrid cars - about 1.06% to be more precise.

Hybrid car sales statistics have shown steady growth over most of the last five years, but sales peaked in early 2008 (at 45,000 vehicles) and showed a steady decline in the second half of 2008 with sales starting to recover somewhat in spring 2009. Considering the spike in oil and gasoline prices up to about July of 2008, and their rapid decline once the economic downturn hit later in 2008, it's not surprising that sales show a peak followed by a steady drop. Fortunately for hybrid car manufacturers, gasoline price increases in the second through fourth quarters of 2009 have been accompanied by a return to higher hybrid car sales. Take a look at this chart, which shows three data series: hybrid car sales statistics by month, a 12-month moving average of hybrid car sales, and average US gas prices per gallon, from January 2004 to December 2009:

Hybrid cars are in some respects a luxury item: they have a higher up-front cost than many gasoline-only cars, and unless you drive a lot, their payback period due to lower mileage costs is longer than most people can afford. So when gas prices go up, more people can cost justify a purchase, and when gas prices fall and there's a major economic recession, demand and prices plummet. The chart above shows just that: the 12-month running average (red line) peaked just before gas prices hit record levels, and both monthly sales and average sales declined steadily as gas prices fell and the economy tanked. Now as gas prices rise (green line) moving into 2010, we see the running average for hybrid sales starting to mvoe upward as well.

There are some bright lights on the horizon though. Sales of Toyota's flagship hybrid, the Prius, fell substantially in early 2009, but this is likely because buyers were anticipating Toyota's release of its new, better mileage, third-generation Prius. Indeed, for November 2009, Prius sales were up 20.7 percent over the same month in 2008, so people may have been holding out for the next generation Prius. Still others may be staying put until the first plug in hybrids are made available. The Toyota plug-in Prius made its North American debut at the Los Angelos Auto Show on December 2 2009, but only 150 vehicles are expected to arrive in the US in early 2010, for demonstration/evaluation purposes. The plug-in model will likely not hit the mainstream until at least the 2011 model year in late 2010. Range of the current model on electric charge only is a mere 13 miles.

Meanwhile, although Toyota has been plagued with quality problems in recent months, including a recall of their Prius models, the Prius continues to be the leader in hybrid car sales, with about 47% of all hybrids sold in the US being Prius models.  In fact Prius sales were more than double the next three biggest Toyota hybrid models combined (Camry Hybrid, RX Hybrid, and Lexus HS250).

What are hybrid cars?

Hybrid cars use a gasoline or diesel engine to power a motor. When the power of the motor is not required to move the vehicle, the motor can shut off, saving energy, or can be used to generate electricity that is stored in batteries, and later used to power the car. Breaking can also be used to store power in the batteries, by using magnetic rather than friction brakes. The simplest hybrids merely turn the motor off when the car does not require locomotion, while more advanced hybrids use the electric motor wherever possible, and only engage the gasoline engine when additional power is required or the battery is low.

Best hybrid cars

The two hybrid cars that get the most attention these days are the Toyota Prius and Honda Insight. I have several friends who own Toyota Prius hybrids - and all of them are very satisfied owners. I can't say I know many people with an Insight. One aquaintance who has since moved out of town had a very early model Insight and it was a very sporty car but impractical for a family vehicle. Current model Honda Insights don't seem to offer that much more in the way of fuel efficiency over a standard car (and are 15% less efficient than current Prius models), so I'm not convinced the Insight is a viable fuel efficient car.

More and more automakers are adding hybrid capability to existing car lines. For example, Toyota has added hybrid capability to some of its Camry, Highlander, RX, GS, and LS models, Honda has offered Civic and Accord hybrids for several years (although the mileage for both vehicles has been poor compared to other hybrids such as the Prius and the very efficient Honda Insight), while Nissan has joined the race with its Altima hybrid (which gets fairly lackluster mileage too). Even the big Three are in on the game, although they just don't seem to get it - most of GM's hybrids (other than the Malibu) are big trucks, which means you have to buy a big gas guzzler to get the superior mileage a hybrid offers! Ford offers the Escape and Fusion, and Chrysler offers the Aspen Hybrid, another honking big SUV.

If you're looking for the best hybrid car, you are probably looking at three main factors:

• Comfort and style - you want to feel, and look, comfortable!
• Performance - you want to get top mileage (see my Hypermiler page for tips on that)
• Reliability - you want a car that has a solid history of good engineering and reliability.

Based on the above, I would say the Toyota Prius is the best hybrid car. Hybrid car sales statistics certainly bear this out - it has been the top selling hybrid for most of its history. It also gets the best mileage of any hybrid car, and Toyota recently re-engineered it so it should be even better. And if my three Prius-wielding friends are any indication, this is a car that makes its owners very happy, and proud.

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